Last week’s article in Newsday prompted us to comment again, but we felt it would only sound like more of the same.

Instead, we decided to try to understand why the numbers published by RealtyTrac for Nassau County and Suffolk County are so dramatically different from the Long Island numbers that we know to be correct.

A study of the details of RealtyTrac’s May 2012 data release showed the following results:

	RealtyTrac consistently reports Suffolk County foreclosure numbers as less than those of Nassau County. For at least the past ten years, this has never been the case. The cause of this discrepancy became obvious after studying their May counts. RealtyTrac reported little or no activity in 50 Suffolk hamlets that actually had a total of 318 filing activities. The most significant of these hamlets being:
	Clearly RealtyTrac’s Suffolk numbers can be disregarded completely.
	Nassau County numbers, while closer to reality, fail in the year to year comparison. A major part of the increase over May 2011 was due to the 128% increase in re-filed Lis Pendens. These should not be considered as “new” foreclosure activity, especially since a large percentage of these re-files are those originally filed by the former law firm of Steven J. Baum PC, which was responsible for over 40% of the foreclosure filings on Long Island for the past several years. These 3 to 4 year old filings have just recently started to be re-filed by other attorneys.

It has always been our opinion that the true measure of “new” activity is the Lis Pendens count.

The chart below uses just new Lis Pendens and compares them to the RealtyTrac numbers.

For complete information on Long Island Sales and Lis Pendens, visit

The Long Island Real Estate Report Stats/Trends area.

There were 1,937 new Lis Pendens filings in the First Quarter of 2011.

This number represents the lowest quarterly count since the second quarter of 2006, and a 48% drop from the first quarter of 2010.

The total Lis Pendens filing activity for the quarter was 2,428, but that included 491 re-filed items, almost all of which were originally filed 3 years ago and had to be re-filed to avoid automatic expiration.

As we have reported on earlier posts, this re-filing number has been steadily increasing since the last quarter of 2009.

In the first quarter of 2011, the re-filings represented 20% of the total number, the largest ever percentage.

The charts below show the quarterly activity beginning in 2005.

Please note that the dip at the end of 2008 and the beginning of 2009 was due to imposed legislation that caused a 3 month delay in filings.

A recent Newsday article using RealtyTrac’s figures stated that the February numbers showed a 23% jump in foreclosure related filings from a year earlier.
In actuality, using Lis Pendens filings as the measure, there was a 41% decrease from February 2010.

While RealtyTrac mentions the biggest year-over-year decrease nationwide, they reported Long Island numbers as increasing.

The table and charts below show the Lis Pendens filings figures for the past 6+ years.

Due to the continuing increase in re-filings (Lis Pendens approaching the 3 year expiration), particularly in Suffolk County, the charts and tables have been modified to separate the new filings from the re-files. (See our previous post on this topic.)

Note the extremely high percentage of the total filings in February 2011 for Suffolk County.
31% of the total filings for the month were renewals.

While it is unlikely that this trend will continue over time, there is no doubting the fact that Long Island Lis Pendens filings have been dropping dramatically.

The chart below shows the number of monthly Lis Pendens notices that were the result of a re-filing.

Most of these re-filings were due to the unusual length of time that it has been taking for a Lis Pendens to move forward to the next stages (appointment of a referee and Judgment of Foreclosure).

This extended time has caused many Lis Pendens to approach their expiration date (3 years) forcing the Plaintiff Attorneys to renew.

The slowing down of the process has been brought about by several factors, including the extremely large number of mortgage foreclosures during the past few years, as well as the legislative actions taken to cause the lenders to modify their procedures.

Since the beginning of 2010, that number has continued to rise, to a high of 172 in December, representing 20% of the total filings for the month.

The chart below shows the relationship between new notices and re-filings.

Foreclosure Closings represent those properties that have been lost by the homeowner after going through the complete foreclosure cycle (Lis Pendens, Judgment of Foreclosure and Auction Sale).

The chart and table below show the figures for the past 5 years.

The 4th quarter of 2010 has recorded only 157, representing a 72% drop from the average of the past 9 quarters.

Many Foreclosure Closings are filed much later than they actually occur, but it is not likely that the late filings will significantly impact these numbers.

The table and chart below show the figures for the past 6 years.

2010 was the first year in the past 6 years in which the Lis Pendens Filings decreased, and the first year that there was a downward trend in average monthly filings.

As can be seen from the individual monthly statistical charts below, the monthly rate of Lis Pendens filings has been increasing each year since 2005.

In 2005 the average number of filings increased by 8 per month. This grew to 24 per month in 2006 and 2007, 56 per month in 2008 and reached its peak of 65 per month in 2009.

In 2010, the numbers began to decrease where the average rate of decrease per month was 38 filings.

There is no reason to believe this trend will continue, as January of 2011 appears to be tracking closely with the January numbers of the past 3 years.

Our numbers are meticulously collected from the public records of Nassau and Suffolk counties, and they are screened for accuracy and appropriateness. Why would the RealtyTrac numbers be so far off?

Recently, RealtyTrac was questioned about the large difference between our numbers and theirs. A spokesman replied that it could be because they collect the data only once a month, and they never report a Lis Pendens that has been reported in the past year.

We do not understand how either of those responses could be the cause of such dramatic differences. We also do not report filings that we have reported already, and the number of repeated filings represents less than 0.5% of the totals.

Although we have no knowledge of the accuracy of the rest of RealtyTrac’s numbers, it is certain that they do not correctly represent the Long Island picture.

Below are the charts showing the monthly Lis Pendens filings and trends for Nassau, Suffolk and Long Island.

The Long Island Real Estate Report Stats/Trends area.

As predicted, the 3rd quarter number of foreclosure filings (Lis Pendens) on Long Island has already surpassed the record set in the 2nd quarter with 8% of the filing periods still unrecorded.

We forecasted that the number could be greater than 5,600. It will definitely exceed that.

As we last reported, the increased Lis Pendens activity was centered on a few lenders.

Particularly:

   BAC Home Loan Services (formerly Countrywide).

   JPMorgan Chase (including Washington Mutual).

   OneWest Bank (formerly IndyMac).

These 3 lenders combined have averaged 135 filings per week for the past 10 weeks, as opposed to 42 filings per week for the previous 80 weeks (since 1/1/2008).

Preliminary 4th quarter information is indicating that this filing barrage may be over.